BY: ROYCE BIDWELL
What will the Big Sky Conference's final four -- Northern Colorado, Montana, Weber State, and Northern Arizona -- do for an encore from the quarter finals?
Two amazing gut wrenching heart felt comebacks by Northern Arizona and Weber State to set the final stage in Greeley, Colorado will be hard to match. Or will it?
NOTE: Grizzly Journal's Royce Bidwell will be covering the Big Sky Conference post-season tournament, which runs Tuesday and Wednesday in Greeley, Colorado. Check back for courtside reports from Bidwell.
The Big Sky Conference certainly got all it could have expected from the quarterfinal games. I am hoping it was a prelude of things to come from Greeley over the next few days. Great quarterfinal games combined with Northern Colorado, Montana, Weber State, and NAU all splitting their head-to-head regular season match ups adds intrigue, and interest for basketball fans. These four programs, their coaches, and players have given Big Sky fans every reason to believe the final two rounds will come down to the final few possessions. I for one, will not be surprised to see any of the four teams win the conference championship... they’re that evenly matched.
So: What or who will separate the winner from the rest of the pack in the Big Sky Conference 2011 Tournament?
Each team has struggled for consecutive games throughout conference play. Each team has all-conference players. Three of the four teams have proven to be quite productive from the perimeter. And the team that hasn’t -- Montana, has proven dominant in the low blocks, with the league's premier Big Man, senior Brian Qvale, and dominating defense. Two teams are very good free throw shooting teams, and two have been inconsistent. Two teams -- Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona -- are senior dominant. One team has a promising balance of youth and experience. All but one have more than one senior.
Will offense or defense win out? Will young talent be served? Or will experience prevail?
EXPERIENCE
Northern Colorado has the edge in leadership by far, with seniors Chris Kaba, Neal Kingman, Taylor Montgomery, and League MVP Devon Beitzel as experienced capable players all capable of scoring.
Despite the Bears’ senior lineup, the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks have more: with Deangelo Jones, Julian Olubuyi, Eric Platt, Shane Johannsen, and all everything guard Cameron Jones logging majority minutes.
Weber State has three seniors in Lindsey Hughey, Josh Noble, and Trevor Morris.
Montana only has Brian Qvale for Senior leadership. But what a better Senior to have than the league's premiere big man, rebounder the conference’s all-time leading shot blocker?
PHOTOS: (Top) Montana's all-conference center scores over Northern Colorado defender Chris Kaba in the Griz' 55-42 win early this season. (Middle) Griz point guard Will Cherry drives to the bucket against Weber State defender Trevor Morris in Montana's 75-56 win. (Bottom) Derek Selvig drives against a Bears' Chris Kaba in Montana's 55-42 win over Northern Colorado.
OFFENSE
There is nothing complicated to figure out here. The Bears, Wildcats and Lumberjacks feature potent perimeter-oriented offenses. The Grizzlies’ offensive attack revolves around the paint, and their inside-oriented offense that keys on Qvale. Montana may have the biggest challenge: to shut down any of three outstanding perimeter shooting teams, two of which have a couple of the country’s best long-range shooters (NAU’s Eric Platt and Weber State’s Scott Bamforth). Meanwhile, the other will be challenged to erect a blockade around Qvale... and force Montana to beat them from the perimeter. With Montana's inside game, and defense, the Grizzlies only have to get timely perimeter shooting, to loosen things up. They have proven successful at winning hard-fought games by coaxing as few as 5-to-7 threes to fall. But for the Griz, especially since sophomore point guard Will Cherry’s severe ankle sprain, that has been much easier said than done. Quite simply, when the perimeter game has contributed, Montana has been outright dominating. Yet when the perimeter game has struggled, so have the GRIZ.
• The advantage on offense will go to the team that has better-than-their-own-average success from the perimeter.
DEFENSE
Montana has the league’s best paint defense, keyed by one of the nation’s best shot blockers in Qvale, who’s matched up with one of the nation’s best ball hawking thiefs in Will Cherry. Each of which has wreaked havoc on opponents this season. Their supporting cast of Shawn Stockton, Art Steward, Kareem Jamar, and Derek Selvig also gets their hands on many passes, and loose balls. Montana will need that to continue if they have any hopes of advancing.
Northern Colorado, Weber State, and Northern Arizona -- while not as efficient as the Grizzlies -- are all solid defensively. Expect them to play man against each other... and zone against the Griz.
• The advantage on defense will be claimed by the team which takes its defense to a new level.
HOME COURT
This can only favor one team. Northern Colorado earned this advantage, and as the season played out, home court has been huge this season in conference play. In a tight game -- which fans will likely see -- this very well could be the determining factor.
In my opinion the Northern Colorado vs. Northern Arizona semi may boil down to which team hits more 3-point shots, and which can hit clutch free throws. The Bears are a great free throw shooting team; the Jacks have been inconsistent. With Northern Colorado at home -- and with league MVP Devon Beitzel likely to perform well -- the Lumberjacks will need dynamic shooting from Jones, Rogers, and Platt to get a win. Too many factors favor Northern Colorado here. • Advantage Bears.
Montana and Weber State is the game many would like to have seen in the championship. But outstanding and consistent play from Northern Colorado trumped what many were hoping for. If Brian Qvale's supporting cast can hit consistently from outside, Montana has the advantage. Montana will be the fresher team. They got the time they needed to prepare, to get Will Cherry healthy, and to practice perimeter shooting. Will the long break hurt Montana? Hard for a team to get any rustier from outside than Montana has been in two of its last three games. I honestly do not see how a long break could have hurt Montana. Improved perimeter shooting, more energy, and the interior leadership of Qvale, Derek Selvig, and Will Cherry should prevail in this match up. On a neutral court, I see this game coming down to the last few possessions. • Advantage Montana in a very tight game.
Montana vs. Northern Colorado for the championship. Who wins in a game featuring youth against experience, home versus visitors, and inside verses outside? Experience and home court usually prevail. Northern Colorado wins another tight game, and sends" thank you"s to Eastern Washington for the home court advantage.
I hate picking against Montana in anything. So please prove me wrong Griz.
I will happily eat crow to see the GRIZ in the NCAA tournament for a second-straight year.
Recent Comments